Plug-in Hybrids Can Buy Us Valuable Time, But They Could Also Become an Obstacle For Charging Infrastructure

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A month or so ago, I explored some ways we could manage a likely onslaught of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). Why do we need to think about this? Because revised EPA emissions regulations recently revealed by the Biden administration basically allow a PHEV to count for roughly 3/4 of an EV. Given how much more cheaply this can be done and how more can be built on limited battery supplies, most automakers are probably going to go for it, offering more PHEVs and delaying widespread EV offerings to varying degrees.

Let’s first look at the fundamental question behind PHEVs that everyone already talks about, and then let’s talk about a new problem: the effect of PHEV sales on EV charging infrastructure growth.

The PHEV Problem Many People Already Identify

There are, of course, ups and downs to PHEVs like anything in life.

Ideally, everyone would plug the PHEV in at home every night, and then they’d do all of their local driving on clean electric power. This would mean that around 90% of the miles would be electric, meaning emissions go down by 90% compared to a hybrid and greater than 90% compared to a standard ICE-only vehicle.

But, there are a lot assumptions baked into that ideal scenario. Some people don’t have access to a plug where they park at night, so they’d basically be driving a heavy hybrid. Other people might simply refuse to plug it in for various reasons, like misunderstanding the cost of electricity compared to gasoline or having an employer who will only reimburse you for gas.

In my previous article, I proposed various ways of dealing with that issue. Changing how tax credits work, getting manufacturers to offer only 50+ miles of range, and encouraging multi-family property owners to provide charging can all help encourage people to increase the plug in rate.

If we could manage it right, we could get most of the benefits while using PHEV as a “gateway drug” to BEV ownership.

What About Demand For Charging Stations?

But, after writing that article and thinking on it some more, I realized that PHEVs may pose an even greater threat: reduced demand for EV charging infrastructure. 

In short, every PHEV sold that would have been an EV sale means there’s that much less need for charging stations. This means, in turn, that EV charging companies will invest less in building more stations and more stalls. Given that EV infrastructure is already pretty inadequate toward meeting mainstream buyers’ expectations for driving an EV, this could very well lead to reduced demand for EVs. I’ll call this the “reverse catch 22”.

But, it doesn’t really need to go this way. As with the “Will people plug it in?” problem, PHEVs could instead be a good thing for EV charging infrastructure. By slowing down the EV adoption rate while stimulating future demand, PHEVs could both give companies time to build infrastructure out and then give them good business once it’s in place and ready for the EV adoption rate to increase again.

How Do We Make The Latter Happen?

 To figure out how to prevent an EV demand collapse through disruption of EV infrastructure demand, we need to break the problem down into its individual moving parts. There’s:

• Demand for EV charging
• Investor perceptions of EV infrastructure
• Whether people settle on PHEVs long-term or buy an EV later
• What confidence people driving PHEVs have in charging networks they’d be considering switching to for long-distance travel needs later.

It seems pretty obvious that demand for EV charging is going to depend a lot on how many people actually own an EV. You obviously can’t want something that you’re not able to use, right? But, other more complicated things, like households that own a gas car and an EV, and take the gas car out on trips instead of the EV, can reduce demand despite growing numbers of EVs on the road. Reliability is likely a big part of these other factors.

The next question is how much uncertainty investors are going to experience when they see PHEV sales rise early on at the temporary expense of EV sales. Some will very likely see this as a sign that the time to invest in EV charging hasn’t arrived yet. But, others will do things the Tesla way and see the necessity for making a long-term investment instead of worrying about getting returns this year or next year.

The question of whether people decide to use a PHEV as a stepping stone or a place to settle down is going to depend a lot on whether they think they can safely replace their dependable gas road trip experience with charging. Most people love the feel of electric driving and can gain an appreciation for that locally with a PHEV. If road trips are still a hassle when it comes time to trade the PHEV in, people may decide to trade for another PHEV instead of an EV.

Possible Solutions

I tried to break it down in hopes that readers would come up with their own ideas, but I’ll end this article up offering some of my own possibilities.

I think it really boils down to the perception of charging networks. If investors and drivers both don’t feel that charging networks are a safe bet, we end up stuck in PHEV Land for the long run. If either drivers or investors alone decide to sit EV charging on road trips out, they discourage the other and create the problem anyway.

So, we need to focus a lot on improving perceptions of EV charging. We shouldn’t hide the ugly truth when it’s ugly, because a nasty surprise isn’t going to help a new EV owner to be confident in the vehicle. But, we do need to be as good at handing out “attaboys” as we are at handing out “shame on yous”. That’s hard to do, because good experiences are easy to get used to.

But, an important part of improving perceptions is improving reality. EV drivers really need to be out there working with businesses and other entities to encourage them to install EV charging, especially in rural areas. If businesses that might invest in EV charging don’t know that you’d use the charger if they put one in, they’ll never do it.

Featured image by Jennifer Sensiba.